Figure 1. Weekly COVID-19 Cases in Arizona and Number of Individuals Undergoing COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing March 1, 2020 – February 6, 2022.

For the week ending February 6th, at least 40267 Arizonans were diagnosed with COVID-19, a 45% decrease from the 73828 cases reported the prior week (Figure 1). This week’s tally is smaller than the January 2021 peak (65094 cases) but it is higher than the June 2020 peak (28009 cases). The risk of contracting Omicron remains extremely high. It is still too soon for institutions and/or individuals to safely relax their mitigation practices as the level of transmission is more important than the direction of change.

Figure 2a. COVID-19 Cases in Arizona by Age Group March 7, 2021 – February 6, 2022 (Data from week ending November 28 suppressed).

Figure 2a shows transmission among all age groups is decreasing with much less separation by age than during the peak.

Figure 2b. COVID-19 Weekly Incidence in Arizona among children March 7, 2021 – February 6, 2022.

Figure 2b shows that transmission among children is also declining across all age groups.

Figure 3. Weekly Number of Patients Undergoing Traditional Nasopharyngeal PCR Testing and Associated Percent Positivity March 1, 2020 – February 6, 2022.

Test positivity fell this week but remains quite high at 49% (Figure 3).

Figure 4. Arizona Daily COVID-19 General Ward and ICU Census April 9, 2020 – February 10, 2022.

As of February 10th, 2436 (28%) of Arizona’s 8743 general ward beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients, a 20% decrease from last week’s 3064 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel A below). Another 604 (7%) beds remained available for use which is higher than last week’s 526 available beds. Four-hundred ninety-nine (499, 31%) of Arizona’s 1642 ICU beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients, a 21% decrease from last week’s 632 occupied beds (Figure 4 and Figure 5 Panel B below). An additional 137 (8%) ICU beds remained available for use which is higher than last week’s 117 beds.

Figure 5. COVID-19 Occupancy as a Percent of Listed General Ward (A, left) and ICU (B, right) Capacity in Arizona April 20, 2020 – February 10, 2022.

In a sign of relief, we fell below 3000 combined occupancy this week. Nevertheless, hospitals remain very busy. They have now experienced 181 consecutive days with a combined occupancy >2000 patients whereas the summer 2020 and winter 2021 saw 57 and 98 days, respectively. We experienced 75 days with >3000 combined occupancy with the Delta/Omicron waves whereas the summer 2020 and winter 2021 waves saw 35 and 78 days, respectively.

Figure 6. Observed Excess Non-Surge General Ward and ICU Capacity in Arizona Mar 26, 2020 – Feb 10, 2022.

Hospital occupancy remains far above seasonal levels with safety margins, as measured by available beds, remaining near historical lows (Figure 6).

Figure 7. Arizona Influenza Cases in 2021 (blue) versus 5-Year Historical Average (grey)

Seasonal influenza cases in Arizona (blue line) has fizzled, at least as compared to the state’s 5-year historical average (grey bars, Figure 7). COVID-19 mitigation efforts may have slowed influenza transmission. Hospitals should get further relief from fewer COVID-19 and fewer influenza cases over the coming weeks.

Figure 8. Weekly Arizona COVID-19 Deaths March 16, 2020 – February 6, 2022.

The week ending December 12th has now recorded 552 deaths to date. Hopefully, this will be the only week this happens during the Delta - Omicron waves (Figure 8). At least 27073 Arizonans have lost their lives to COVID-19. A mortality report from the AzPHA indicates that official statistics undercount actual deaths.

Figure 9. Weekly COVID-19 Cases in Pima County and Number of Individuals Undergoing COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing March 1, 2020 – February 6, 2022.

For the week ending January 30th, 5882 Pima County residents were diagnosed with COVID-19, a 44% decrease from the initial tally of 10507 cases last week (Figure 9). Transmission by age group is shown in Figure 10.